WALES (30)
The effect of the 2013 boundary review will be most keenly felt in Wales. Historically Wales has been over-represented at Westminster, a consequence of its distance from London and sparse population in some parts of the country. The previous Rules for Redistribution of Seats guaranteed 35 seats for Wales and for many years it has been divided into forty constituencies. Now, with the equalisation of electorates, ten of those forty seats will disappear. Just one of the present 40 seats (Cardiff South and Penarth) is within the 5% tolerance from the new electoral quota so the changes in each area will be drastic.
It's worth noting that Wales' arithmetic entitlement is 29.68 so, even with the equalisation, the Welsh seats will still be on average 1.2% smaller than quota.
Starting in the north, the entitlements are: Anglesey 0.65, Conwy 1.19, Gwynedd 1.12. The Ynys Mon seat is 35% under the new quota so there will be a seat crossing the Menai, probably for the first time. Having a "North West" grouping of Anglesey + Conwy + Gwynedd councils looks attractive; the combined area has an entitlement of 2.95 so could have 3 seats within quota; probably one based on Anglesey and Bangor (much of eastern Anglesey is within the economic orbit of Bangor), one based on the coastal resorts of Llandudno and Colwyn Bay and one covering rural Caernarfonshire, Merioneth and the Conwy valley.
In the north-east the numbers are less helpful: Denbighshire 0.97, Flintshire 1.51, Wrexham 1.30. Denbighshire can stand on its own but the other two councils can't, and neither can the combined area (entitlement 3.78). It would be possible to add Powys into the mix, which would make the entitlement of the area 5.11, good for five constituencies. The seats would presumably be: one based on Breconshire, Radnorshire and Newtown; one based on Welshpool and southern parts of the old Clwyd; one based on Wrexham and southern Flintshire; one covering the rest of Flintshire and one consisting of Denbighshire plus a ward or two from northern Flintshire (if Denbighshire stood on its own the rest of the area would be a very tight fit for four seats).
The old Dyfed is in a similar situation; the entitlements are Carmarthenshire 1.78, Ceredigion 0.73, Pembrokeshire 1.21. Now Ceredigion + Pembrokeshire comes to 1.94 so it will be possible to create two seats in the combined area, with the Preseli area moving into the Ceredigion seat and a new Pembrokeshire seat created from the rest of the county. Carmarthenshire will presumably have a rural seat based on Carmarthen itself (a straight merger of Carmarthen East/Dinefwr with the Carmarthenshire part of Carmarthen W/S Pembs would be sufficient) and an urban seat based on Llanelli expanding into Glamorgan.
In western Glamorgan the entitlements are: Swansea 2.41, Neath Port Talbot 1.42, Bridgend 1.35. With Carmarthenshire having a 1.78 entitlement the simplest option would be to group all four districts for an entitlement of 6.96 and an allocation of seven seats.
The rest of urban south Wales comes to the awkward number of 12.68 seats; 3.05 for Cardiff and 9.63 for the rest, broken down as Blaenau Gwent 0.70, Caerphilly 1.67, Merthyr 0.57, Monmouthshire 0.92, Newport 1.36, RCT 2.30, Torfaen 1.21, the Vale 1.21.
Arithmetically Cardiff could stand on its own for three seats, but then you end up with three awkward half-entitlements to deal with: the Vale + RCT = 3.51, Monmouthshire + Caerphilly = 5.55 and Merthyr 0.57, in an area where the Valleys constrain options for creating good seats. So probably Cardiff will go in with the surrounding areas in order to create more options.
SCOTLAND (52)
Two of those seats are for Orkney/Shetland and the Western Isles, which leaves 50 for the mainland. With an arithmetic entitlement of 50.54 the mainland seats will be on average 1.1% larger than the quota. Seven seats will disappear on the mainland.
In the south-west Dumfries and Galloway (1.52) needs a partner. Currently there is one seat (Dumfries and Galloway) within tolerance covering the west of the district and one seat which extends into South Lanarkshire (3.16 entitlement). The two Lanarkshire councils have an entitlement of 6.40, so it makes sense to group the three areas (7.92) and allocate eight seats. The area currently has seven whole constituencies (Airdrie, Coatbridge, Dumfries/Galloway, East Kilbride, Lanark, Motherwell and Rutherglen) and the majority of two others (Cumbernauld and Dumfriesshire), so overall a seat disappears here. Currently Dumfries/Galloway, East Kilbride, Lanark and Rutherglen are within tolerance, although Lanark will need to give up some territory to Dumfriesshire. Maybe this will allow the Boundary Commission to break a long-standing tradition and not split Hamilton between constituencies?
The three Ayrshire councils together come to 3.83 seats, so it will just about be possible to keep four seats within Ayrshire. The Ayrshire Central seat will need to be increased in size to come within tolerance.
The three Renfrewshire councils have entitlements of 0.80 (Inverclyde), 1.68 (Renfrewshire) and 0.89 (East Renfrewshire). No combination of these councils covering Renfrewshire can have an integer number of seats within the tolerance, so the Commission may choose to group the area with Glasgow (5.85). The combined area would have 9.22 seats and could be allocated 9 seats. There are currently 11 constituencies in this area so two seats will disappear here.
The two Dunbartonshire councils can't stand alone (East 1.05, West 0.87) but together come to a 1.93 entitlement so two constituencies can be allocated to the combined area. Probably part of Bearsden or Milngavie will move into the West constituency.
In the south-east, East Lothian (0.97) could stand on its own and could remain unchanged. Midlothian (0.81) and Scottish Borders (1.16) need a partner. Edinburgh (4.19) could just about stand alone for four seats, but the seats would be almost impossibly tight within the tolerance. Similarly West Lothian (1.61) and Falkirk (1.53) together come to 3.14 quotas, and it would be almost impossible to get three seats here within the quota. So the Commission may choose to group Edinburgh, Falkirk, Midlothian, Scottish Borders and West Lothian together for a total of 9.30 seats. Currently there are ten-and-a-bit seats here so one seat will disappear, probably in the Edinburgh area. Berwickshire/Roxburgh/Selkirk may be unchanged, while Falkirk and Linlithgow/Falkirk E need to be reduced in size.
In the north-east, Aberdeen (1.99) can be allocated two seats without question. The rest of the councils are:
Aberdeenshire (2.40)
Angus (1.14)
Clackmannanshire (0.50)
Dundee (1.38)
Fife (3.66)
Perth and Kinross (1.44)
Stirling (0.87)
There is no way to split these councils into two groups such that an integer number of seats can be allocated to each group, so the Commission will need to group them all for an entitlement of 11.39 and an allocation of 11 constituencies.
Finally, the three Highlands councils (Argyll and Bute, 0.88; Highland, 2.25; Moray, 0.87) can be grouped for an allocation of exactly four constituencies. There are provisions relating to geographic size of constituencies which will only have an effect here, although I haven't worked out what effect they will have.
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